EB‑2 NIW Approval Rate in 2026: Latest USCIS Data and Historical Trends

The EB-2 NIW approval rate rose to 55.3% in the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2026, marking the third straight quarterly increase from the 35.7% low in Q4 FY2025. These figures come from official USCIS Form I-140 data, released quarterly.

While this rebound offers relief after several years of declines, it does not mean approvals are automatic. Denials also remain more common than they were in FY2024. Here is what the latest government datasets show, why rates shifted, and what the trend means for your filing.

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate in 2026?

The EB-2 NIW approval rate is 55.3% for the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2026. According to the Q3 FY2026 USCIS approval data, adjudicators decided 6,938 Form I-140 petitions between April and June 2026. Of those decided cases, officers approved 3,835 petitions and denied 3,103.

On this page, the approval rate measures total approvals divided by total decisions (meaning approvals plus denials). This formula excludes petitions waiting in the agency queue.

Across the first three quarters of Fiscal Year 2026 (Oct. 1, 2025, through June 30, 2026), the cumulative approval rate stands at 49.1%. During that nine-month span, USCIS decided 18,823 petitions, approving 9,238 and denying 9,585. While the year-to-date mark remains below 50%, the quarterly figures show steady gains since hitting a low of 35.7% in Q4 FY2025.

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate by quarter?

EB-2 NIW adjudication rates shifted noticeably between Fiscal Year 2024 and Fiscal Year 2026. In FY2024, quarterly approval rates held above 60%, reaching 76.7% in the first quarter. By the end of FY2025, that pattern reversed.

Approval rates rose to 67.3% in Q2 FY2025 before falling sharply to 35.7% in Q4 FY2025. That drop marked the lowest quarterly rate since at least FY2024, with denials outnumbering approvals by more than 2,300 cases.

Fiscal Year 2026 shows steady recovery. Rates climbed across three straight quarters: 42.5% in Q1, 48.1% in Q2, and 55.3% in Q3. While approvals have regained majority status, adjudicators continue to deny cases at higher rates than they did in FY2024.

Source: USCIS Form I-140 Quarterly Reports, FY2024–FY2026

Why have EB-2 NIW approval rates declined?

On January 21, 2022, USCIS updated its national interest waiver guidance, citing Executive Order 14012 from February 2021. It clarified how STEM graduates and entrepreneurs can qualify. In Fiscal Year 2022, the EB-2 NIW approval rate was 95.7%.

New filings rose sharply afterward. Annual petition volume rose from 21,973 in FY2022 to more than 66,000 in FY2025.

Although NIW approval rates were exceptionally high in FY2022, subsequent years saw a significant decline in approval rates. The decline reflects a changing adjudication environment, although approval statistics alone do not establish the reasons for that change. In January 2025, USCIS issued additional guidance clarifying the evidentiary requirements for NIW petitions, reinforcing the importance of presenting a well-defined proposed endeavor and a thoroughly documented case.

How have EB-2 NIW approval rates changed over time?

Qualifying for an EB-2 NIW requires two distinct steps. First, you must meet baseline eligibility with an advanced degree or exceptional ability. Second, you must satisfy the discretionary waiver test set in Matter of Dhanasar.

Under the USCIS Policy Manual, you must prove three prongs:

1. The proposed endeavor has both substantial merit and national importance.
2. You are well positioned to advance the proposed endeavor.
3. On balance, it would benefit the United States to waive the job offer and labor certification requirements.

Annual government data tracks this shift over time. Approval rates fell from 95.7% in FY2022 to 79.6% in FY2023. They slid to 71% in FY2024 and 55.2% in FY2025. Through the first three quarters of FY2026, the cumulative rate is 49.1%.

*Per USCIS FY2022 and FY2023 year-end Form I-140 reports; FY2026 reflects Q1 through Q3 only.

What do the broader statistics show for filings, backlog, and EB-1A comparisons?

National Interest Waiver filings remain near record highs. USCIS received 63,549 petitions in Fiscal Year 2024 and 66,276 in FY2025, marking a 4.3% annual increase. Through the third quarter of FY2026, the agency received another 40,363 filings.

This sustained volume continues to expand the federal backlog. Pending NIW petitions rose from 74,392 at the close of FY2025 to 96,297 by June 30, 2026. EB-2 NIW processing time currently sits at 30 months.

USCIS also reports approvals grouped by the fiscal year a petition was received. Under this measure, the agency approved 4,720 petitions filed in FY2014, compared to 29,009 filed in FY2023. Recent filing years remain incomplete because many cases are still pending review.

Comparing EB-1A vs. EB-2 NIW reveals a clear shift in trends. Since Q2 FY2026, the EB-2 NIW approval rate has stayed above the EB-1A approval rate.

Source: USCIS Form I-140 Case Status Data, FY2025–FY2026

Does the EB-2 NIW rate differ by country?

USCIS does not publish EB-2 NIW approval rates by country of birth. Any country-specific percentage you see online is an estimate.

Instead, USCIS reports raw volume. The table below lists the top countries of birth for petitions filed and approved in Q3 FY2026.

Source: USCIS Form I-140 Data, Q3 FY2026

Never divide approvals by receipts to find a rate. These numbers track different cases filed at different times. Learn more in our breakdown of which countries file the most EB-2 NIW petitions.

What truly differs by country is the wait after approval. Final action cutoffs stand at November 1, 2013 for India and October 1, 2021 for China, compared to April 1, 2025 for other countries. Read our guide on EB-2 India wait times to plan your timeline.

What are the chances of an EB-2 NIW approval in 2026?

The national approval rate does not set your individual odds. Officers judge each file on its own merits under a rule called preponderance of the evidence. Under this rule, you must prove your claims are more likely true than not.

Your chances depend on your proof. A founder with venture funding, client contracts, and strong citations faces very different odds than someone filing with only an advanced degree.

How can an applicant strengthen an EB-2 NIW petition today?

To build a defensible case, you must satisfy the Dhanasar three-prong test. Adjudicators evaluate your file on tangible facts.

How do you prove substantial merit and national importance?

Officers deny cases if the work only impacts one company or local market. Your proposed work must offer broader economic or technical value.

You must show how your endeavor helps a full field, such as artificial intelligence, energy, or health care. Point to government reports or industry data that name your focus area as a national priority.

How do you demonstrate you are well positioned to advance the endeavor?

This prong is a common driver of Requests for Evidence (RFEs). You should document venture funding, client contracts, product revenue, or citations.

Show what you have already built, in addition to what you plan to do later. Strong expert letters should confirm your past execution and your potential.

Why is it beneficial to the United States to waive the labor certification?

You must prove why skipping the PERM labor test benefits the nation. USCIS weighs factors such as whether securing a job offer or labor certification would be impractical for you (for example, as a founder or self-employed researcher), whether the United States would benefit from your work even if qualified U.S. workers are available, and whether your work is urgent.

Depending on your background, you can also weigh alternative paths like EB-1A, an O-1 visa, or standard PERM labor certification.

How does Manifest Law support EB-2 NIW petitioners?

Manifest's EB-2 NIW lawyers focus on cases for tech founders, researchers, and specialized talent.

Officers evaluate files against strict legal rules. To meet this bar, every petition undergoes a two-attorney review before filing. One lawyer drafts your file. Next, a second senior attorney tests the case strategy.

This review process helps build a clear, defensible record. While no firm can promise case results, thorough preparation gives your endeavor a solid footing.

Frequently asked questions about EB-2 NIW approval rates

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate right now?

The EB-2 NIW approval rate was 55.3% in the third quarter of Fiscal Year 2026. This mark reflects three straight quarters of growth since hitting a low of 35.7% in Q4 FY2025.

Is the approval rate the same as my personal chances of approval?

No, the national rate reflects an average across all filings, not your individual odds. Officers judge each case on its own facts under the legal preponderance of the evidence standard.

Why do EB-2 NIW petitions get denied?

Petitions are often denied when they do not prove national importance or show real career progress. Officers deny cases when the impact stays inside one company or helps only direct clients.

What does it mean if I receive a Request for Evidence (RFE)?

An RFE means the officer needs more proof before deciding if your petition meets the Dhanasar standard. It is not a denial, but you should review our guide on how to respond to an EB-2 NIW RFE to build a solid response.

What is the EB-2 NIW approval rate after an RFE?

USCIS does not publish how often it issues RFEs on EB-2 NIW petitions, or approval rates for petitions that received one. Even so, many applicants secure an approval by sending clear facts that resolve the officer's specific doubts.

Related guides: EB-2 NIW Approval Rates May Be On the Rise: March 2026 Lawfully Data, USCIS Releases Third Quarter Approval Data for Fiscal Year 2026.